Is Musharraf-Bhutto conflict all it seems?

Some observers say the political falling-out is a tactical move

Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto went from a prime ministerial hopeful with international support to a house prisoner in Islamabad, the country's capital.

The detention order has since been lifted and the country's military ruler, Gen Pervez Musharraf, is clearly himself under tremendous international pressure to complete the transition to democracy.

So what is happening in Pakistan?

Ms Bhutto and Gen Musharraf have been locked in talks for several months on how to get to what Gen Musharraf has described as "full democracy".

But his move to impose emergency rule on 3 November has caused an ostensible falling-out between the two leaders, both considered crucial by the West to Pakistan's fight against Islamist extremism.

'Mock conflict'

But is the falling-out quite what it seems?

More cynical observers think Friday's dramas in Islamabad and elsewhere are an exercise in mutual face-saving, a clandestine understanding that is meant to benefit both.

Gen Musharraf imposed emergency rule after months of unrest

According to these observers, the masses in Pakistan are not yet ready to come out in full support of political leaders against a government bent on preventing street protests.

This, they say, was known to Ms Bhutto when she called Friday's public meeting in Rawalpindi, near Islamabad.

Her subsequent detention has helped preserve the "mythical name" of the Bhuttos in Pakistan.

And, the cynics say, has also negated the impression that she, a self-declared champion of democracy, is in cahoots with Gen Musharraf, a military dictator who came to power by deposing an elected government.

As for Gen Musharraf, a mock conflict with Ms Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party (PPP) affords him time to get the revamped Supreme Court to endorse the legality of his re-election as president.

Nine judges were sacked and replaced after they refused to endorse Gen Musharraf's declaration of a state of emergency, declaring it unconstitutional.

Without imposing emergency rule, the general appeared to have no way of getting rid of an increasingly independent court that was hearing, and possibly planning to overturn, the legality of his new term as president.

Observers say Gen Musharraf will not prolong the emergency rule because of pressure he is under from Western powers that want him to quit the army and hold early parliamentary elections.

'Measured confrontation'

But another set of observers believe the conflict is genuine, and arises out of Gen Musharraf's tactics - the imposition of emergency rule and a media blackout - which Ms Bhutto considers detrimental to her interests.

PPP supporters were rounded up by police in Islamabad on Friday

These observers point out that in the past Ms Bhutto has managed to hold larger public gatherings under more oppressive regimes, and can still do that.

But her plan this time appears to be one of "measured confrontation".

According to these observers, while another opposition leader, Nawaz Sharif, set himself on a collision course with the Musharraf regime and was exiled for a second time, Ms Bhutto adopted the course of dialogue.

This paved the way for her trouble-free return to the country after eight years of self-imposed exile.

Now that she is secure in her base, she can step up pressure on the regime to make further concessions to her party, they argue.

Alternatively, she can use the threat of public demonstrations as an instrument that could upset the applecart for the regime, with serious consequences for Gen Musharraf.

Focused protests

The number of PPP workers who attempted to converge for Friday's public meeting was pretty insignificant, but the hide-and-seek in the streets of Rawalpindi between supporters and the police continued for longer than expected.

Until recently lawyers led anti-emergency rule protests in Islamabad

Protests by PPP workers have also erupted across Ms Bhutto's native Sindh province which, although small scale, have been persistent and widespread.

These seem significant as they are the first by an authentic political party in recent days. The other protests have come from lawyers and civil rights groups.

The PPP protests may continue over the coming days, given that Ms Bhutto's deadline to Gen Musharraf to call off emergency rule and restore the constitution expires late on Friday.

Ms Bhutto has already called for the people to rise if she is arrested. She also called for a "long march" starting on 13 November, from Lahore to Islamabad, if her key demands were not met.

Although Friday's protests appeared to be spontaneous and largely directionless, observers feel that if they are prolonged, they will become more focused.

However, Ms Bhutto may be wary of allowing these protests to turn into a wider movement, drawing in lawyers, the rights groups and other opposition parties.

This, they say, would divert attention from the threat of militancy and regional stability - something Ms Bhutto will have to contend with if she becomes prime minister, and for which she will need Gen Musharraf and a willing army.