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Tuesday, November 6, 2007

Q&A: Pakistan's political crisis

Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf has declared a state of emergency and suspended the constitution.

Gen Musharraf has been under growing pressure this year from opponents to his rule, while hundreds have died in violence as security forces battle pro-Taleban militants.


Why did the president take extraordinary measures?

He suspended the constitution because of what he called threats facing the nation.

Gen Musharraf addresses the nation on 3 Nov 2007
Gen Musharraf faces numerous challenges

He blamed unprecedented levels of violence from Islamist extremists, but correspondents say it is clear the main target is the judiciary which is accused of interfering in government policy and weakening the struggle against terrorism.

The Supreme Court has taken several decisions against the government recently.

Crucially, it has been hearing legal challenges to the president's re-election in October and there was fear in the government that it would rule against him, correspondents say.

Parliamentary elections are due in January, but it is not clear whether they will go ahead.

How has the move been seen?

It has been universally condemned by Gen Musharraf's opponents in Pakistan.

They say he is trying to cling to power and accuse him of acting unconstitutionally.

International criticism has been negative but muted.

The US and UK both expressed concern at developments, saying they wanted to see free and fair elections in Pakistan.

But both governments still see Gen Musharraf as their best bet for tackling extremism in Pakistan, and observers say this is unlikely to change at present.

Washington has a major influence in Pakistan, not least because it has been injecting huge amounts of financial support to the country since President Musharraf swung behind the US-led "war on terror" after the attacks on the US on 11 September, 2001.

But the US has shown signs of growing concern at the political unrest in Pakistan, the military's setbacks against the militant threat and the continuing accusations that militants can use Pakistan as a base to attack US and other foreign and local forces in Afghanistan.

Some observers believe that Washington's preferred option is for Gen Musharraf to stay in control of military matters - with an elected government led by former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto.

What are the president's political rivals up to?

Benazir Bhutto returned to Pakistan on 18 October after years of self-imposed exile, promising to help restore democracy and to lead her party into the parliamentary elections.

Her Pakistan People's Party have been in prolonged negotiations with Gen Musharraf's advisers.

Gen Musharraf signed an amnesty clearing Ms Bhutto of corruption charges, a crucial step towards an expected power-sharing agreement. The Supreme Court was going to rule on whether that amnesty was legal. It is still not clear what effect emergency rule may have on any deal.

Another key issue still to be settled is her demand that a law banning anyone from being prime minister more than twice be repealed.

Both she and another former PM, Nawaz Sharif, have served two terms in office.

Mr Sharif tried to end seven years of exile by flying home to Pakistan on 10 September, but was promptly deported to Saudi Arabia.

Where are the other main challenges to Gen Musharraf coming from?

Supreme Court Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry - ousted on the same day that Gen Musharraf declared emergency rule - has proven a thorn in his side with a number of judgements against the government.

Gen Musharraf initially suspended him in March, but the move triggered a wave of protests from lawyers, and later opposition parties. The Supreme Court ordered his reinstatement.

He and other judges and lawyers have proved a focal point for opposition to Gen Musharraf and say his declaration of emergency rule is illegal.

Meanwhile, pro-Taleban militants have been spreading their wings, taking on the army in the tribal areas along the border with Afghanistan. There have also been a wave of attacks elsewhere in the country, including the capital, Islamabad.

Gen Musharraf angered militants and hard-line Islamic parties with his order for security forces to capture the radical Red Mosque in Islamabad in July - with the loss of more than 100 lives.

That led to a surge in suicide bombings.

How loyal is the army?

Gen Musharraf draws most of his influence from the army, which dominates the establishment of Pakistan, and through it its politics.

Observers are watching for signs of any cracks in the military's support for him. Elements within the intelligence services are accused of backing pro-Taleban militants and being unhappy with Kashmir policy.

Gen Musharraf had promised to step down as chief of army staff later this month.

Observers say that in doing so, he would risk losing leverage over the military. His influence could be undermined further if a popular prime minister came to the fore.

Critics say he has broken previous promises to quit his army role. Some say his declaration of emergency rule gives him the pretext to do that again.

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