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The NewsFuror

Thursday, November 8, 2007

Is Bhutto up for confrontation?


Benazir Bhutto
Benazir Bhutto holds the key to mass protest

Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto seems to have launched a multi-pronged attack on military ruler President Pervez Musharraf.

Her threat to call mass protests unless emergency rule is called off has left both the government and opposition in shock.

Until recently, Ms Bhutto was engaged in power-sharing talks with the government, supported by Western powers, including the United States.

In doing so, she also helped Gen Musharraf retain a semblance of legitimacy after he first tried to sack the country's chief justice last March.

The PPP appears to have decided to flex its muscles and take the long-awaited plunge to bring about regime change

That sparked countrywide protests led by lawyers and supported by all the opposition groups - except Ms Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party (PPP).

But she has now given Gen Musharraf only two days to lift the emergency or face protests, and warned him to keep promises to quit as army chief and hold elections.

Will Ms Bhutto's ultimatum throw this high-stakes game off track? And if so, what are her chances of success in a situation in which the government appears determined to quell all dissent?

'Go for the kill'

There are two schools of thought on what her strategy is and what she is trying to achieve through these actions.

A lawyer is detained by police in Lahore, 5/11/07
Thousands of lawyers and others have been arrested

The first view is that she has decided to "go for the kill".

Adherents of this view believe that Gen Musharraf is already facing mounting criticism from most Western capitals that are reviewing their economic and diplomatic ties with the country.

With Ms Bhutto adopting the course of confrontation, Gen Musharraf stands to lose the only credible political ally that the international community believes could be instrumental in the country's crucial fight against Islamic militants.

They believe that even a small turnout at Friday's public meeting in Rawalpindi will set the tone for united protests which have so far evaded Pakistan's political forces.

The rest of the opposition would either be swept off its feet, or have no option but to throw its weight behind the PPP's campaign, they say.

According to these observers, Gen Musharraf would be forced to backtrack on his recent moves if the protest movement catches on.

There would also be the likelihood of ousted Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry emerging as one of its main leaders, which neither President Musharraf nor Ms Bhutto wants.

Regime change

The second view is that Ms Bhutto's move is aimed at driving a wedge between Gen Musharraf, and the ruling PML-Q party, his ally of eight years.

It has provided Gen Musharraf with a political face and an engineered parliamentary majority that enabled him to sell Pakistan as a democracy to his Western allies.

Ms Bhutto is now threatening to take the fight for parliament to the PML-Q's home turf in the Punjab, the adherents of this view say.

They believe the PPP also has substantial support in the Punjab, and unlike other opposition parties, it will be able to mobilise its workers despite the fears of a crackdown by the administration.

As one analyst put it, PPP workers are currently confident the Americans are behind them, and that Prime Minister House in Islamabad is the prize of this war.

Either way, the PPP appears to have decided to flex its muscles and take the long-awaited plunge to bring about regime change.

Ms Bhutto has already said that even if she is arrested, the campaign will go on until her demands are met.

Whether Gen Musharraf will survive this battle is anybody's guess, but the predominant opinion is that ousting him would not suit the PPP, which has so far focused on rolling back the army's involvement in politics in phases rather than with a single blow.

How Ms Bhutto charts a middle course that would lead to free and fair elections without harming the position of Gen Musharraf remains to be seen.

The question also remains whether Gen Musharraf would be willing to see the pliant and subordinate ruling party replaced by Ms Bhutto's resurgent and assertive PPP as manager of the country's political affairs.

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