Kenya 'at risk of fresh violence'

The report comes as yet more mob violence erupted in a Nairobi slum

Further violence could erupt in Kenya unless a solution to the country's political crisis is found urgently, an international think tank has warned.

Armed groups on both the opposition and government sides are mobilising for fresh attacks, according to the International Crisis Group (ICG).

Its report calls for legal, electoral and constitutional reforms and for aid to be conditional on a peaceful result.

Ex-UN chief Kofi Annan has been leading mediation talks in Nairobi.

The two sides agree on a grand coalition in principle, but deadlock remains over how it should work in practice.

Opposition leader Raila Odinga wants powers vested in a new post of prime minister - but this needs MPs to amend the constitution and is opposed by President Mwai Kibaki.

The ICG report comes as Kenya's opposition warned it would relaunch mass protests in a week's time if the talks do not break the political deadlock.

Using aid

Ethnic and political violence broke out after President Kibaki was declared the winner of December's presidential election.

The current uneasy calm in Kenya should not be misunderstood as a return to normalcy International crisis group

At least 1,000 people have been killed across the country and hundreds of thousands of people have been displaced.

The ICG report warned "serious obstacles" to peace remained and made 12 recommendations.

These included sanctions to be targeted at those responsible for inter-ethnic violence.

And the group said international aid should be made dependent on a satisfactory outcome to negotiations.

"The current uneasy calm in Kenya should not be misunderstood as a return to normalcy," said the report.

Roots of conflict

In an interview with the BBC, the ICG's Donald Steinberg said he thought the negotiations to establish a transitional government were going quite well.

"It's very important, however, that the negotiations go deeper than that," he said.

Can opposition leader Raila Odinga and Mwai Kibaki govern together?

"We are very concerned that the efforts to reach that short-term agreement come at the expense of very long-term and fundamental changes that need to occur.

"If all we get is a short-term agreement on power-sharing and transitional arrangements, it's uncertain that the instigators of the violence will deem that as acceptable," and the violence might resume, he said.

At the root of the violence, said Mr Steinberg, were the tribal divide-and-rule policies of Kenya's previous ruler, Daniel arap Moi, which had not been addressed under Mr Kibaki.

The report noted that Kenya was the platform for relief operations in Somalia and Sudan and a haven for refugees from throughout the region.

The think tank also said Kenya was a vital regional trade hub and a key anchor for prospects of long-term stabilisation in Rwanda, Uganda and Burundi.

It concluded: "The quicker a comprehensive solution to the crisis in Kenya is found, the better the prospects will be for the entire region.

"The alternative - a collapsed economy, the evisceration of the democratic process and ethnic and territorial conflict - would have severe consequences for the whole of east Africa, and well beyond."

Gunmen kill Kenyan opposition MP

The national death toll since the elections is now about 800

A Kenyan opposition MP has been shot dead in Nairobi, police say, adding they could not rule out a connection to disputed presidential elections.

Mugabe Were, a member of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) of the defeated candidate, Raila Odinga, was attacked outside his home, police said.

An ODM spokesman called for calm and restraint following the MP's death.

Meanwhile the parties will begin formal talks on Tuesday to resolve the crisis, mediated by former UN chief Kofi Annan.

A UN spokesman said the dialogue process would start at 1600 local time (1300 GMT) at a neutral location.

'Shun violence'

Mr Were is the first leading politician to have died amid violence that has gripped Kenya since December's poll.

Two gunmen shot Mr Were as he drove up to the gate of his house in the capital just after midnight, Kenya police spokesman Eric Kiraithe was quoted by the Associated Press news agency as saying.

This is a new kind of violence but let's call again on people to be peaceful and to only respond to this kind of violence by shunning violence Salim Lome ODM spokesman

"We are treating it as a murder but we are not ruling out anything, including political motives. We are urging everyone to remain calm," he said.

Mr Were, who represented Nairobi's Embakasai district, won a seat in the 27 December legislative election, which was held at the same time as the presidential vote.

ODM spokesman Tony Gachoka said: "The current situation makes one suspicious. All fingers will point at the government, and the government will have to show it is not involved."

Another ODM spokesman, Salim Lome, called on people "to be peaceful and to only respond to this kind of violence by shunning violence".

The appeal came amid reports of opposition supporters pouring onto the streets in several cities.

In the Kibera slum in Nairobi, eyewitnesses spoke of clashes between rival ethnic groups.

Members of President Mwai Kibaki's Kikuyu tribe have been fighting with Luos and Kalenjins who backed his rival, Mr Odinga, in last month's election.

International concern

Police fired tear gas and live bullets to disperse a crowd of about 100 opposition supporters who had gathered in the western city of Kisumu in a show of anger at Mr Were's killing, AFP news agency reported.

"First they started killing the ordinary people like us, now they are killing our leaders, we won't accept it," demonstrator Justus Othieno told AFP news agency.

The protest followed bloodshed in Kisumu and also in Eldoret.

Riots have also been ongoing in the towns of Naivasha and Nakuru in the Rift Valley, where dozens of people have been killed in five days of ethnic violence.

Plumes of smoke were seen rising from the lakeside at Naivasha, as crowds apparently looted the homes of people fleeing the violence.

Mr Odinga accuses Mr Kibaki of stealing the vote and has refused to recognise the result.

Analysts warn a cycle of violence is emerging amid the political impasse, where the pattern of attacks is followed by reprisals.

The former UN secretary general Kofi Annan has been trying to mediate a solution between the two sides.

He set Tuesday as a target for Kenya's government and opposition to name negotiators, in the hope that engaging in formal talks might make it possible to quell the violence.

Annan hits out at Kenya 'abuses'

The Rift Valley town of Nakuru has seen some of the worst violence

Former UN head Kofi Annan has condemned "gross and systematic abuses of human rights" in Kenya, after a visit to violence-hit parts of the country.

Mr Annan said conflict may have been triggered by disputed elections, but it had evolved into "something else".

The facts had to be established and those responsible held to account, Mr Annan said on his return to Nairobi.

On Saturday, police brought 16 badly burnt bodies to the mortuary in Nakuru, the capital of Rift Valley province.

Mr Annan - in Kenya to mediate attempts for a political solution - was flown over Nakuru on Saturday as part of a tour that also included visits to Eldoret and Molo district.

Hospital staff in Nakuru said they had received the bodies of nine more people, hacked by machetes or killed by arrows.

Earlier the authorities had imposed an overnight curfew across the city in the wake of renewed inter-ethnic conflict.

Rival gangs of young men battled with machetes, metal bars, bows and arrows, while thick smoke billowed up from burning buildings.

The violence came despite hopes of progress after President Mwai Kibaki met opposition leader Raila Odinga for the first time on Thursday since December's disputed polls.

Burnt forests

Mr Annan set off from Nairobi shortly after first light on Saturday to see for himself some of the destruction and human misery caused by more than three weeks of violence.

On Friday Mr Annan held talks with religious leaders

He visited some of the thousands of people in Eldoret whose homes have been destroyed or who moved to the town to try to find shelter.

The former UN chief also boarded a helicopter to fly to Molo district where many have been killed.

Speaking in the capital, Nairobi, Mr Annan said: "What we saw was rather tragic. We visited several IDP [internally displaced persons] camps, we saw people pushed from their homes, from their farms, grandmothers, children, families uprooted.

"And I think it is important that all Kenyans respond with sympathy and understanding, and not try to revenge."

He also said there needed to be fundamental changes to Kenya's institutions to prevent a repetition.

"We cannot accept that periodically, every five years or so, this sort of incident takes place and no-one is held to account. Impunity cannot be allowed to stand," Mr Annan added.

Tanzania's former President, Benjamin Mkapa, travelling with Mr Annan, said: "The political crisis in the country [has caused] a state of agony and despair. We console the people."

On Friday Mr Annan held talks with Kenyan election officials and religious leaders in Nairobi, urging them to use their leadership to encourage people to work for peace.

"The leaders may not be able to do it alone. We all need to play our part," he said.

Barricade

Nakuru is said to be relatively quiet following the overnight curfew. But there has been sporadic gunfire in the city on Saturday.

The BBC's Adam Mynott says that some protesters erected a barricade across the main road and many homes have been burnt in the town.

Hundreds of people have sought refuge in churches or friends' homes.

There are also reports of truckloads of many young men being moved overnight to a village on the outskirts of the town.

The unrest triggered by the election on 27 December has driven 250,000 people from their homes. Mr Odinga says he was robbed of the presidency.