Kenya 'at risk of fresh violence'

The report comes as yet more mob violence erupted in a Nairobi slum

Further violence could erupt in Kenya unless a solution to the country's political crisis is found urgently, an international think tank has warned.

Armed groups on both the opposition and government sides are mobilising for fresh attacks, according to the International Crisis Group (ICG).

Its report calls for legal, electoral and constitutional reforms and for aid to be conditional on a peaceful result.

Ex-UN chief Kofi Annan has been leading mediation talks in Nairobi.

The two sides agree on a grand coalition in principle, but deadlock remains over how it should work in practice.

Opposition leader Raila Odinga wants powers vested in a new post of prime minister - but this needs MPs to amend the constitution and is opposed by President Mwai Kibaki.

The ICG report comes as Kenya's opposition warned it would relaunch mass protests in a week's time if the talks do not break the political deadlock.

Using aid

Ethnic and political violence broke out after President Kibaki was declared the winner of December's presidential election.

The current uneasy calm in Kenya should not be misunderstood as a return to normalcy International crisis group

At least 1,000 people have been killed across the country and hundreds of thousands of people have been displaced.

The ICG report warned "serious obstacles" to peace remained and made 12 recommendations.

These included sanctions to be targeted at those responsible for inter-ethnic violence.

And the group said international aid should be made dependent on a satisfactory outcome to negotiations.

"The current uneasy calm in Kenya should not be misunderstood as a return to normalcy," said the report.

Roots of conflict

In an interview with the BBC, the ICG's Donald Steinberg said he thought the negotiations to establish a transitional government were going quite well.

"It's very important, however, that the negotiations go deeper than that," he said.

Can opposition leader Raila Odinga and Mwai Kibaki govern together?

"We are very concerned that the efforts to reach that short-term agreement come at the expense of very long-term and fundamental changes that need to occur.

"If all we get is a short-term agreement on power-sharing and transitional arrangements, it's uncertain that the instigators of the violence will deem that as acceptable," and the violence might resume, he said.

At the root of the violence, said Mr Steinberg, were the tribal divide-and-rule policies of Kenya's previous ruler, Daniel arap Moi, which had not been addressed under Mr Kibaki.

The report noted that Kenya was the platform for relief operations in Somalia and Sudan and a haven for refugees from throughout the region.

The think tank also said Kenya was a vital regional trade hub and a key anchor for prospects of long-term stabilisation in Rwanda, Uganda and Burundi.

It concluded: "The quicker a comprehensive solution to the crisis in Kenya is found, the better the prospects will be for the entire region.

"The alternative - a collapsed economy, the evisceration of the democratic process and ethnic and territorial conflict - would have severe consequences for the whole of east Africa, and well beyond."

Kenya ethnic violence fears grow

Riot police are on patrol after fresh clashes in Nairobi's slums

Both sides in Kenya's disputed election have accused each other of ethnic violence as tens of thousands have fled their homes fearing further clashes.

At least 250 people have been killed, including 30 in western Kenya burned to death while sheltering in a church.

Many Kenyans have been taking refuge from armed mobs and looters as fears mount of further attacks and reprisals.

The African Union chairman is due in Kenya, as the US and UK add their voices to AU calls to end the violence.

Mwai Kibaki, who was officially re-elected president in Thursday's vote, and opposition leader Raila Odinga, who says he was robbed of victory by fraud, have both called for an end to the killing.

A government spokesman told the BBC that Mr Odinga's supporters are "engaging in ethnic cleansing" in an "organised, calculated manner".

Mr Odinga has countered in an interview with the Associated Press that Mr Kibaki's government was "guilty, directly, of genocide".

The majority of those killed in the church were Kikuyu, the same tribe as Mr Kibaki, and there have been reports of people being targeted on the basis of their ethnicity.

Abbass Gullet, secretary general for Kenya's Red Cross, told AFP that only those from "the right ethnic group" had been allowed through barricades in some places.

Correspondents say that although the election was more about economic and political issues than tribal ones, there is a danger that as the violence escalates it will take on more of an ethnic dimension.

Diplomatic push

Aid agencies are warning of a "humanitarian catastrophe" if the crisis is not defused.

African Union chairman John Kufuor is due to meet with Mr Kibaki on Wednesday amid growing international pressure to find a solution to the crisis.

The visit comes as US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and UK Foreign Minister David Miliband issued a joint statement pointing to reports of "serious irregularities" in the vote count.

"The immediate priority is to combine a sustained call from Kenya's political leaders for the cessation of violence by their followers with an intensive political and legal process that can build a united and peaceful future for Kenya," the statement said.

Fear and looting

President Kibaki, who was swiftly sworn in on Sunday following Thursday's vote, said political parties should meet immediately and publicly called for calm.

But Mr Odinga said he would only hold talks once the re-installed president "publicly owns up that he was not elected".

Commuters travel by foot after police blocked roads to traffic

Those killed in the church in Eldoret were among hundreds believed to be sheltering there.

Witnesses said that a mob angry about the election result doused the church with petrol before setting it alight.

Residents of the town who have contacted the BBC have described an atmosphere of fear, with people sheltering as homes are set on fire and gangs of armed youths loot properties.

One woman told the BBC that she was locked in an orphanage in Eldoret.

"The older children have been told that they need to arm themselves just in case we might have to protect ourselves, so they've got batons, they've got anything they can find," she said.

Also on Tuesday there were reports of new street battles breaking out in Nairobi slums.

The Kenyan Red Cross has said that in the Rift Valley, at least 70,000 people have been displaced as a result of the unrest, describing it as "a national disaster".

Ugandan officials also reported hundreds of Kikuyu tribes people crossing the border from Kenya, AFP reported.

Commission 'pressured'

Mr Kibaki was declared the winner on Sunday after a controversial three-day counting process.

On Tuesday, election commission chairman Samuel Kivuitu said he had been under pressure to make the election results public from Mr Kibaki's Party of National Unity and a minor opposition party that recently split from Mr Odinga's Orange Democratic Movement.

"I was being pushed by PNU and ODM-Kenya to announce the results immediately," he said.

EU observers said the poll "fell short of international standards", and four Kenyan election commissioners have joined calls for an independent judicial body to re-examine the process.

But Finance Minister Amos Kimunya denied the fraud allegations.

He told: "I have no evidence that they were rigged. Anyone who has any information that they were rigged in one constituency or the other, or overall, let them subject it through the legal process."

Fears mount over Kenya violence

Some of the violence has taken on an ethnic dimension

Diplomatic pressure on Kenya's leaders is mounting as concerns rise over violence that has left at least 100 people dead after disputed polls.

UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown has urged both sides to work for a solution after what his government called "horrific killings".

The US government said it had "serious concerns" about the vote count.

Mwai Kibaki was officially re-elected president while Raila Odinga says he was robbed of victory by voting fraud.

There were running battles in Nairobi slums on Monday, and violence broke out at protests in Mr Odinga's home town of Kisumu.

Some of the clashes took on an ethnic dimension with the Luo community seen as pro-Odinga and the Kikuyus viewed as Kibaki supporters.

If the two sides cannot be persuaded to start talking in the next few days, there is fear that the violence could spiral out of control and turn into full-scale tribal revenge killings, says BBC diplomatic correspondent Bridget Kendall.

Kenya's Red Cross said many of the dead were killed in ethnic clashes and that gangs were checking the tribal affiliations of Red Cross workers trying to help the injured, the Associated Press reported.

'Appalled'

Mr Brown telephoned Mr Kibaki and Mr Odinga amid diplomatic efforts to broker a compromise, urging both to work for "unity and reconciliation".

"We're appalled by and condemn the incidents of violence taking place in Kenya, including horrific killings in several Kenyan cities and towns," said UK Foreign Secretary David Miliband.

The US and the EU both expressed concern over the election.

"What's clear is that there are some real problems here and that those need to be resolved in accordance with their constitution and in accordance with their legal system," said Tom Casey, a US State Department spokesman.

"I am not offering congratulations to anybody because we have serious concerns about the vote count," he added.

Rally

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon urged security forces "to show utmost restraint" and appealed to Kenyans "for calm, patience and respect for law."

Mr Odinga has called for a million-strong rally by supporters in Nairobi on Thursday.

Demonstrators have been involved in running battles with police

Police banned his supporters from holding a mass alternative inauguration ceremony in the centre of the capital on Monday, a day after Mr Kibaki was sworn into office again.

In his New Year's message, the president urged reconciliation but warned that his government would "deal decisively with those who breach the peace".

Mr Odinga called on his supporters not to "ethnicise" the disputed poll. He compared Mr Kibaki to a military dictator who "seized power through the barrel of the gun."

International news agencies have counted at least 100 deaths across Kenya since Thursday's elections- with some death tolls as high as 135 - either in clashes between protesters and security forces, or in ethnic violence.

• A hospital in the north-western city of Eldoret told AFP news agency it had recorded 24 violent deaths since Saturday, with most victims either injured by gunfire or machetes
• An AFP count puts the death toll in Kisumu at 53 and that in Nairobi's slums at 48
• Seven people were killed in Nakuru, in the Rift Valley, and at least four people were killed in Mombasa
• In the coastal town of Mombasa, angry crowds on the streets set fire to cars and buildings.

Correspondents say violence was worst in the opposition stronghold of Kisumu, where a BBC reporter saw about 40 bodies with gunshot wounds at a mortuary. A witness said police had opened fire.

OFFICIAL RESULTS Mwai Kibaki (pictured): 4,584,721 votes Raila Odinga: 4,352,993 Kalonzo Musyoka: 879,903

Police fired indiscriminately, even after the protesters started running away in the Kisumu suburbs of Manyatta and Nyamasira, an eye-witness told the BBC's Noel Mwakugu.

European Union monitors have said they were barred from counting centres.

They reported seeing altered voting forms and said results declared in Nairobi for one constituency differed from those announced locally.

Mr Kibaki's national margin of victory was 230,000 votes.

Elections chief Samuel Kivuitu has admitted some problems, including a reported voter turnout of 115% in one constituency, the Associated Press reports.