Musharraf party 'lagging in poll'

The gunfire in Karachi on Monday night was celebratory

Pakistani opposition parties are well ahead in the country's elections, President Musharraf's allies say.

The ruling PML-Q would be consigned to the opposition if provisional results - from more than half of seats - were confirmed, said spokesman Tariq Azeem.

Supporters of opposition parties including Nawaz Sharif's PML-N and the PPP of the late Benazir Bhutto have been celebrating in the streets.

Mr Musharraf insists he will accept the result, regardless of who wins.

He is not standing in the parliamentary election himself, but a clear defeat of his supporters could herald struggles over his presidency, analysts suggest.

The poll took place on Monday, having been delayed following Ms Bhutto's assassination on 27 December.

High-profile victims

Unofficial and provisional results showed big gains for Mr Sharif and Ms Bhutto's parties.

The latest figures appeared to give both parties about 30% of the vote and more than 50 seats each, with Ms Bhutto's party slightly ahead.

The PML-Q was trailing a distant third, while smaller parties and independents also picked up seats.

Whosoever wins we should accept it - that includes myself President Musharraf

"If the results are confirmed we will play the part of the opposition as effectively as we can," Mr Azeem told the AFP news agency.

Most official counts will not be declared until later on Tuesday.

But high-profile victims of the poll were reported to include party president Chaudry Shujaat Hussain and his close ally, Railways Minister Sheikh Rashid.

They were among the PML-Q losses in Punjab, the country's most populous province and a key electoral battleground.

Pakistani newspapers spoke of a "rout" of Mr Musharraf's allies, with The News proclaiming: "Democracy takes revenge."

"The result will be the voice of the nation and whosoever wins we should accept it - that includes myself," said Mr Musharraf.

Turnout

Celebrations were continuing in the streets of cities including Lahore, Rapalwindi and Karachi as news of early results trickled out.

At least 20 people are reported to have died in election-day violence, with the PPP reporting 15 of its members killed.

Most counts will be completed by Tuesday morning

There were also reports of missing ballot boxes.

But there was also widespread relief that there were none of the major bomb attacks which had marred the run-up to the election.

Fears of violence had dissuaded many of the country's 80 million eligible voters from leaving their homes, and voter turnout was estimated to be less than 40%. Close to half a million security personnel, including about 80,000 soldiers, had been deployed to quell any outbreak of fighting.

The wait for news of the next government is the start of fresh uncertainty in Pakistan, says the BBC's Jill McGivering in Karachi.

Even once the election results are clear, there will still be plenty of behind-the-scenes bargaining to come, she says.

Future in the balance

Polls suggest a fair vote is likely to result in a hung parliament, with none of the three biggest parties winning a majority, analysts suggest.

Attention will then turn on the PPP, and whether it chooses to join forces with pro-Musharraf parties, or with Mr Sharif's party.

Mr Sharif is staunchly opposed to the president, and if the two opposition parties jointly gain two-thirds of the seats, they may try to impeach Mr Musharraf, correspondents say.

Mr Musharraf stepped down as army chief late last year. He has ruled the country since seizing power in a coup in 1999.

Pakistan poll date decision due

Elections were two weeks away when Bhutto was killed

Pakistan's election commission is meeting to decide when elections originally scheduled for 8 January will take place.

On Tuesday it said holding the polls as planned looked "impossible", in the wake of clashes following the killing of opposition leader Benazir Bhutto.

A commission official said the decision on the parliamentary poll would be made after consulting the political parties.

The main opposition parties want the poll to go ahead as planned.

The commission's spokesman, Kanwar Dilshad, said violent protests had directly affected the organisation of the poll.

PPP TOP LEADERS Asif Ali Zardari Benazir's widower and former political ally, has faced corruption and other charges Bilawal Bhutto (pictured) Benazir's son, a 19-year-old Oxford University student, considered too young by some PPP members Makhdoom Amin Fahim Senior PPP figure and top aide to Benazir

Thirteen polling offices were burnt in Ms Bhutto's home province of Sindh as protests and violent clashes broke out after her assassination last Thursday, he said.

But opposition parties have condemned any delay as a desperate measure to avoid defeat by President Pervez Musharraf's ruling party.

"There are no grounds whatsoever for delaying the elections," said Raza Rabbani, deputy secretary general of Ms Bhutto's party, the PPP.

"It is being done only at the behest of the PML-Q as they are seeing their defeat," he said.

The other main opposition leader, former PM Nawaz Sharif, vowed his party would "agitate" against a delay.

The ruling PML-Q party has said the 8 January vote should be delayed for several weeks, on the grounds that the vote would "lose credibility" if held under current conditions.

The BBC's Chris Morris in Islamabad says the PPP wants elections as soon as possible, in order to take advantage of what could be a big sympathy vote.

Dossier on 'rigging'

On Tuesday, one of Ms Bhutto's aides said that the day the PPP leader was killed, she had been planning to give two visiting US lawmakers a 160-page dossier setting out how she thought the vote would be rigged.

The aide said it documented how Pakistan's ISI intelligence service and the election commission planned to use intimidation and fake ballots to ensure a ruling party victory.

President Pervez Musharraf's spokesman dismissed the claims as "ridiculous".

"Take it from me, it's going to be perhaps the best election that Pakistan has ever had," said Rashid Qureshi.

The electoral commission has asked each of Pakistan's four provincial governments to compile reports on their readiness for an election.

The commission says in many districts ballot boxes and voting screens have been destroyed and the printing of ballot papers - and their delivery around the country - has also been disrupted.

Clashes

At least 47 people have been killed in violence since Ms Bhutto's death.

The authorities have accused pro-Taleban militant leader Baitullah Mehsud of being behind her killing.

On Wednesday, the military said troops had killed about 25 militants in the tribal region of South Waziristan where Baitullah Mehsud is based.

Fighting began on Tuesday after four troops were taken hostage by the militants, the authorities say.

New Video of Bhutto Assassination May Contradict Government Version of Events

Dec. 30: Video footage appears to show Benazir Bhutto being shot by a man at close-range.

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ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — A newly released video of Benazir Bhutto's assassination and an inconclusive medical report raised new doubts Monday about the official explanation of her death and were likely to intensify calls for an independent, international investigation.

The footage, obtained by Britain's Channel 4 television, showed a man firing a pistol at Bhutto from just feet away as she greeted supporters through the sunroof of her armored vehicle after a rally Thursday.

Her hair and shawl then moved upward and she fell into the vehicle just before an explosion — apparently detonated by a second man — rocked the car.

Bhutto's aides, including one who rushed her to the hospital, said they were certain she was shot. She was buried Friday without an autopsy.

The government, citing a report from doctors at the hospital where she died, said she was not hit by any of the bullets, but was killed when the force of the blast slammed her head into a lever on the vehicle's sunroof.

However, a copy of the medical report sent to reporters by a prominent lawyer who is a board member of the hospital said the doctors had made no determination about whether she was shot.

It gave the cause of death as "open head injury with depressed skull fracture, leading to cardiopulmonary arrest."

The report, signed by seven doctors at the hospital, said that when Bhutto was brought in, she had no pulse and was not breathing.

Blood trickled from a wound on the right side of her head and whitish material that appeared to be brain matter was visible. Her clothes were soaked with blood.

The medical team worked for 41 minutes to try to resuscitate her before declaring her dead.

The report said her head wound was an irregular oval shape measuring about 2 inches by 1.2 inches. No surrounding wounds or blackening were seen.

"No foreign body was felt in the wound. Wound was not further explored," it said.

The report was released by prominent opposition lawyer Athar Minallah, who is a member of the board that oversees Rawalpindi General Hospital.

He said that the doctors had called for an autopsy to definitively determine the cause of death, but that Rawalpindi police chief Saud Aziz refused.

"The wound might appear to be a bullet wound, but without an autopsy no doctor would ever be able to give a conclusive opinion that it was or it wasn't a bullet wound," Minallah said. "Without an autopsy there can be no investigation at all."

However, Aziz denied that he refused to authorize an autopsy.

"I have not told anyone about stopping the post-mortem," he told The Associated Press. "It is a legal requirement, but again it is dependent upon the legal heirs of the deceased."

In a news conference Sunday, Bhutto's widowed husband, Asif Ali Zardari, confirmed that he had refused a request to perform an autopsy, saying he did not trust the government of President Pervez Musharraf to carry out a credible investigation.

He also rejected the government's account about his wife's death as "lies."

Interior Ministry spokesman Javed Iqbal Cheema said Bhutto's family was free to exhume her body for an autopsy if it wished.

The dispute undermined already shaky confidence in Musharraf, a former army chief who seized power here in a 1999 coup. Many of Bhutto's supporters have demanded a U.N. probe similar to the one investigating the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.

"It's difficult to believe that they are so incompetent that they would handle this whole affair in such a shabby manner so as to create so much doubt," Minallah said.

Musharraf agreed to consider international support when he spoke by phone Sunday with Gordon Brown, the British prime minister's office said. But Rashid Qureshi, a spokesman for the Pakistani president, said Monday that Musharraf had made no such promises.

The government has blamed an Islamic militant leader for Bhutto's killing, an accusation the militant and Bhutto's party dismissed.

Talat Masood, a former army general and security analyst, said the government was "outright stupid" for coming out with firm conclusions about her death just one day later, saying a more thorough investigation was required.

"They should have waited at least a few days," he said.

Bhutto murder: the key questions

Several days after Benazir Bhutto's assassination, the exact circumstances of her killing remain unclear. The BBC's M Ilyas Khan in Karachi has been examining the differing accounts of her death and the direction in which the murder inquiry is heading.

THE DIFFERING ACCOUNTS

Many questions remain about Ms Bhutto's murder

In the immediate aftermath of the blast, police said that Miss Bhutto had safely escaped the attack. But later it became apparent that she had been taken to the Rawalpindi General Hospital's emergency section.

A seven-member team of doctors which examined her sent a report to the health ministry saying Ms Bhutto had open wounds on her left temporal region from which "brain matter was exuding". The report did not say what caused the wound, apparently because no autopsy had been performed on the body.

A day later, an Interior Ministry spokesman, Brig Javed Iqbal Cheema, told the media that Ms Bhutto died of a skull fracture caused by a lever attached to the sun-roof of her bullet-proof vehicle. He said she must have hit her head against the lever when she ducked to escape the assassins' bullets. He denied that her body carried any gunshot wounds.

These differing accounts inevitably fuelled speculation about a possible cover-up at worst, and an attempt by the government to sidestep its responsibility at best.

The interior ministry's version has been rubbished by Miss Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party (PPP) which says that she was shot in the neck, and that the bullet exited from the back of her head.

Party spokeswoman Sherry Rehman said that she was with Miss Bhutto when the attack took place, and later cleaned her body at the hospital. She says that she saw two wounds that were bleeding profusely.

WHY DOES IT MATTER?

Militants made no secret of their dislike of Ms Bhutto

One point of contention between the PPP and the government has been the security provided to Ms Bhutto.

Given Ms Bhutto's status as a former prime minister and her popularity, the government would not like to be seen as having failed to provide adequate security to her, more so since the government itself had warned Ms Bhutto about threats to her life.

But if the PPP's version is held to be true and the assassin indeed got so close to Ms Bhutto as to be able to hit her at almost point-blank range, then all sorts of questions are raised, ranging from lax security to complicity by elements within the government.

JUST HOW LAX WAS THE SECURITY?

At least two pieces of information that have come to light since the assassination suggest that security for Ms Bhutto was indeed lax.

One is an e-mail she sent to her long time friend and lobbyist in the US, Mark Siegal, on 26 October.

There are questions over the level of security

She wrote in the e-mail that she had been made to feel insecure by (President) Musharraf's "minions" and had not received the requested improvements to her security.

She said she was being prevented from using private cars or vehicles equipped with tinted windows. She said that she had also not been provided with jammers to prevent remote controlled bombs or police mobile outriders to cover her vehicle on all sides.

The other material is amateur video footage that appears to show a man in sunglasses shooting her from close quarters and another man draped in a white robe blowing himself up soon afterwards.

No security presence is seen in the entire video clip.

Media reports suggest that the police and rangers guarding checkposts around the exit gate of Liaquat Bagh, where Ms Bhutto addressed the rally, left their posts before Ms Bhutto's vehicle drove out of the park.

WHY DID MISS BHUTTO'S HUSBAND REFUSE AN AUTOPSY?

Ms Bhutto's husband, Asif Zardari, said that he was contacted by the Punjab home secretary who wanted permission to hold a post mortem examination, but that he refused the request.

"We know how these autopsies are conducted and how the reports can be manipulated. We also know how she died," he told the media on Sunday.

In conservative Pakistani society, women's bodies are rarely allowed by their relatives to be subjected to a post mortem examination. It is even avoided in the case of men due to the belief that it constitutes disrespect to the deceased.

WHY WAS THE SCENE OF THE BLAST HOSED DOWN?

The scene of the blast was washed with a high pressure hose of the fire brigade hours after the incident, apparently to clean the road.

The interior ministry spokesman said the spot was washed after all the required evidence had been collected by the investigators.

He brushed aside observations by the media that the investigators may still have had to revisit the site for verification of evidence they had collected earlier.

WHAT EVIDENCE IS THERE THAT THE ATTACK WAS ORDERED BY THE TALEBAN?

After the attack, the interior ministry provided the media with transcripts of a telephone conversation between a top Taleban commander in South Waziristan, Baitullah Mehsud, and an unnamed person.

PPP supporters disagree with the government's version of events

The two congratulate each other on a job well done, but Miss Bhutto's name is not mentioned in the brief conversation.

The ministry spokesman says an audio tape of the Pashto language conversation can also be provided to the media, adding that the government has Mr Mahsud's voice signature to prove that it is him talking.

The transcripts were made public on the day an Italy-based news agency - Adnkronos International - quoted an al-Qaeda spokesman, Mustafa Abu al-Yezid, as claiming responsibility for the assassination.

Shortly before Ms Bhutto's return to Pakistan in October, the Daily Times newspaper carried a statement from Mr Mahsud, saying he was determined to kill her because she was an American agent.

A senator from South Waziristan who had reportedly passed the statement to the newspaper denied having done so two weeks later, when Ms Bhutto's convoy was bombed in Karachi on 18 October.

Mr Mahsud's spokesman has promptly denied the interior ministry's allegation, claiming that the audiotape of the alleged telephonic conversation is a fake.

He has also demanded investigation into the killing by "independent" agencies to identify the actual culprits.

Bhutto determined to contest poll

Ms Bhutto described the attacks as "dastardly and cowardly"

Former Pakistani PM Benazir Bhutto has promised she will never surrender to militants following twin bomb attacks on her convoy which killed 130 people.

Ms Bhutto told that there could be more attacks to come, but said she and her party were determined to contest the parliamentary elections in January.

The carnage has raised questions about the safety of campaigning for the poll.

Earlier, she said ex-army officials had been behind the attacks, but stressed she was not blaming the government.

She also said she had been warned that she would be targeted by four militant groups before returning to Pakistan after eight years in self-imposed exile.

Correspondents say many are asking why Ms Bhutto held the procession in Karachi on Thursday despite such fears.

'Saving democracy'

In an interview, Ms Bhutto said she was lucky to be alive following the two attacks on her motorcade as it travelled down the main road from Karachi's airport to the city centre.

What I really need to ask myself is: do I give up, do I let the militants determine the agenda? Benazir Bhutto

Authorities have said the first blast was caused by a hand grenade and that the second was a suicide bombing, but the exact sequence of events remains unclear.

She said armed militants had targeted her and that she had been saved by the bravery of her bodyguards.

Ms Bhutto conceded she was at constant risk of another attack in the future, particularly during an election campaign.

"What I really need to ask myself is: do I give up, do I let the militants determine the agenda?" she said.

Ms Bhutto said she and the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) were determined to contest the parliamentary election due to be held by mid-January and were ready to take the risks to defend democracy.

"I've been having a party meeting and, believe me, the spirit amongst the party is one that I'm so proud of because they say we can't let the militants dictate to us what's going to happen, and that we have to try and save Pakistan by saving democracy. So my supporters are ready."

Warnings

Ms Bhutto was not very specific about who she thought had attacked her, but did say she had received a warning about Pakistani and Afghan members of al-Qaeda, the Taleban and local Pakistani groups.

I don't believe the state or the government was involved in the attack on me at this stage Benazir Bhutto

Several Islamist militant groups had threatened to attack Ms Bhutto after she promised to confront those operating in the northern tribal areas bordering Afghanistan.

Half an hour before the bombs went off, she said, her security personnel had detained someone found with explosives around his body.

The person was handed over to the police, but Ms Bhutto said she did not know whether the police had discovered anything.

Ms Bhutto said Pakistan's President, Gen Pervez Musharraf, had called her shortly after the attack and that she was not blaming the government for what had happened.

KEY DATES 06 Oct: Presidential polls held 17 Oct: Supreme Court resumes hearing challenges to Musharraf candidacy 18 Oct: Benazir Bhutto's homecoming 15 Nov: Parliamentary term ends and general election must be held by mid-January

"I don't believe the state or the government was involved in the attack on me at this stage," she said.

"But I do believe that the sympathisers of the militants had managed to infiltrate some of our agencies and some of our administrative apparatus in a new guise and that they abused their positions to give covert support to the militants, which is why controlling militancy has really not succeeded within the country."

Ms Bhutto said extremists were a small minority in Pakistan and that she wanted to appeal to those who wanted to build a moderate society.

Pakistan set to choose president

Pakistani lawmakers are set to vote in a presidential election, even though it is not clear if President Pervez Musharraf has the legal right to run.

Gen Musharraf is expected to win the vote in parliament and the country's four provincial assemblies.

But Pakistan's Supreme Court says no winner can be announced until it rules if he can stand while still army chief.

A deal with former PM Benazir Bhutto means her supporters will not join an opposition boycott of the election.

On Friday Gen Musharraf dropped corruption charges against Ms Bhutto - a stride towards an expected power-sharing deal.

President Musharraf hopes the reconciliation agreement, as it is called, will add credibility to his government.

Ms Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party (PPP) is the largest in the country.

'Just a formality'

Pakistan has been engulfed in political upheaval in recent months, at the same time as the security forces have suffered a series of blows from pro-Taleban militants opposed to Gen Musharraf's support for the US-led "war on terror".

HAVE YOUR SAY If both the sides are serious, it should work. This should bring the much-desired stability to Pakistan Bijal Bhatt, Auckland, New Zealand

Gen Musharraf will step down as army chief, but only if he wins the election, his lawyers have said.

Voting is due to take place from 1000 to 1500 (0500 to 0900 GMT).

But Friday's ruling by the Supreme Court throws the presidential election into confusion.

The BBC's Barbara Plett in Islamabad says government officials called the decision a formality but analysts said it was a serious setback that would place a question mark over the legitimacy of the poll.

It means that even if Gen Musharraf does get the most votes he cannot be declared winner until the court has decided if he was a valid candidate in the first place.

KEY DATES 06 Oct: Presidential vote due to be held 17 Oct: Supreme Court to resume hearing challenges to Musharraf candidacy 18 Oct: Date ex-PM Benazir Bhutto has set for her homecoming 15 Nov: Parliamentary term ends and general election must be held by mid-January

Last week the court dismissed a number of earlier objections filed by Gen Musharraf's opponents on technical grounds.

That led to fresh petitions being filed this week.

The judges said they would not make a final decision before 17 October, which coincides with the day Ms Bhutto says she will return from years of self-imposed exile.

Correspondents say Gen Musharraf was waiting for the court's verdict before formalising a power-sharing deal with Ms Bhutto.

The ordnance signed into law on Friday exempts any person charged with - but not convicted of - corruption between 3 January 1986 and 12 October 1999.

Correspondents say it is designed to exclude another former Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif, whose corruption cases date from 2000.

The amnesty paves the way for Ms Bhutto's return to contest parliamentary elections scheduled to be held by mid-January.